NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU IOWA
Points 79.9 80.4
Total Points   160.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 46.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 15.6
Points From Free Throws 17.1 18.5
Shooting PSU IOWA
Field Goals Made 27.3 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 58.3
Field Goal % 45.6% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 41.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 17.1 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 23.8
Free Throw % 74.9% 77.4%
Ball Control PSU IOWA
Rebounds 33.0 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.1
Turnovers 10.1 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.4
Steals 6.9 5.5
Fouls 16.6 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU IOWA
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 72.7
% of Possessions with PSU IOWA
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 19.7%
Player Fouled 20.6% 22.4%
Turnover 13.6% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU IOWA
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 27.7%