NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU IND
Points 71.4 71.7
Total Points   143.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 44.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 12.2
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.1
Shooting PSU IND
Field Goals Made 23.7 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 53.5
Field Goal % 39.7% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 4.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 14.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.9
Free Throw % 74.9% 65.9%
Ball Control PSU IND
Rebounds 32.0 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.0
Turnovers 9.1 13.2
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.1
Steals 8.5 4.4
Fouls 17.3 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU IND
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 67.7
% of Possessions with PSU IND
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 17.2%
Player Fouled 21.2% 24.0%
Turnover 12.6% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU IND
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 28.3%