NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU GTWN
Points 82.4 70.3
Total Points   152.7
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 19.9
Points From Free Throws 17.8 17.0
Shooting PSU GTWN
Field Goals Made 28.5 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 55.1
Field Goal % 51.3% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 61.1% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 17.8 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 23.6
Free Throw % 74.9% 72.0%
Ball Control PSU GTWN
Rebounds 31.8 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.9
Turnovers 9.5 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.5
Steals 8.2 4.7
Fouls 16.0 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU GTWN
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 70.1
% of Possessions with PSU GTWN
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 25.1%
Player Fouled 23.5% 22.6%
Turnover 13.4% 18.1%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 11.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU GTWN
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 33.7%