NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU MD
Points 66.5 67.9
Total Points   134.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 14.0
Points From Free Throws 16.0 18.3
Shooting PSU MD
Field Goals Made 22.3 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 53.2
Field Goal % 40.8% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 25.8%
Free Throws Made 16.0 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 25.1
Free Throw % 74.9% 73.1%
Ball Control PSU MD
Rebounds 31.8 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.0
Turnovers 11.1 12.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.6
Steals 6.5 5.5
Fouls 17.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU MD
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 68.8
% of Possessions with PSU MD
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 21.8%
Player Fouled 23.6% 24.9%
Turnover 15.8% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU MD
Shot Blocked 6.9% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 32.1%