NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU MICH
Points 77.8 70.5
Total Points   148.3
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 17.6
Points From Free Throws 15.2 15.5
Shooting PSU MICH
Field Goals Made 27.6 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 54.7
Field Goal % 46.0% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 15.2 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 21.9
Free Throw % 74.9% 70.8%
Ball Control PSU MICH
Rebounds 32.0 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 10.3
Turnovers 8.8 14.0
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.8
Steals 8.6 3.9
Fouls 16.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU MICH
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 68.5
% of Possessions with PSU MICH
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 22.4%
Player Fouled 21.7% 22.7%
Turnover 12.2% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU MICH
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 30.6%