NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NKU CCU
Points 78.8 73.4
Total Points   152.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 40.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 20.7
Points From Free Throws 15.7 11.7
Shooting NKU CCU
Field Goals Made 27.3 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 63.2 58.5
Field Goal % 43.3% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.1 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 15.7 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 16.9
Free Throw % 73.1% 69.4%
Ball Control NKU CCU
Rebounds 34.5 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.9
Turnovers 8.5 14.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.8
Steals 9.7 4.8
Fouls 13.7 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Coastal Car

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NKU CCU
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 69.7
% of Possessions with NKU CCU
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 25.9%
Player Fouled 20.2% 18.4%
Turnover 11.4% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 13.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NKU CCU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 28.9%