NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NKU RMU
Points 77.1 71.4
Total Points   148.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.3 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 28.5
Points From Free Throws 17.1 10.5
Shooting NKU RMU
Field Goals Made 26.9 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 60.5
Field Goal % 46.5% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 30.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 30.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 17.1 10.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 15.1
Free Throw % 73.1% 69.8%
Ball Control NKU RMU
Rebounds 33.7 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 13.0
Turnovers 9.8 13.9
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.2
Steals 7.6 4.5
Fouls 12.5 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NKU RMU
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 71.4
% of Possessions with NKU RMU
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 35.4%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 34.9%
Player Fouled 22.9% 17.3%
Turnover 13.6% 19.2%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NKU RMU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 34.9%