NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NKU OAK
Points 71.9 78.6
Total Points   150.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 30.3
Points From Free Throws 13.0 13.4
Shooting NKU OAK
Field Goals Made 25.7 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 60.4
Field Goal % 42.7% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 29.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.0 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 17.5
Free Throw % 73.1% 76.4%
Ball Control NKU OAK
Rebounds 33.8 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 11.2
Turnovers 10.5 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.4
Steals 6.4 6.2
Fouls 14.1 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Oakland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NKU OAK
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 71.9
% of Possessions with NKU OAK
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 34.7%
Player Fouled 19.5% 19.6%
Turnover 14.6% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NKU OAK
Shot Blocked 5.6% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 31.9%