NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NKU INDPU
Points 81.4 64.7
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.0 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 10.1
Points From Free Throws 15.7 12.3
Shooting NKU INDPU
Field Goals Made 29.4 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 53.6
Field Goal % 52.0% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 60.6% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 3.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 23.1%
Free Throws Made 15.7 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 16.9
Free Throw % 73.1% 72.7%
Ball Control NKU INDPU
Rebounds 33.1 29.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 20.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.1
Turnovers 12.0 16.0
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.2
Steals 8.9 6.9
Fouls 13.8 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: IUPUI

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NKU INDPU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 65.0
% of Possessions with NKU INDPU
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 17.8%
Player Fouled 22.7% 19.2%
Turnover 16.7% 22.2%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 12.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NKU INDPU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 34.3% 28.7%