NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NKU PFW
Points 72.8 76.6
Total Points   149.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 29.7
Points From Free Throws 15.0 11.0
Shooting NKU PFW
Field Goals Made 25.8 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 60.9
Field Goal % 46.5% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 29.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 15.0 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 15.3
Free Throw % 73.1% 71.8%
Ball Control NKU PFW
Rebounds 35.5 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.0
Turnovers 14.2 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.5
Steals 6.9 7.9
Fouls 13.6 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NKU PFW
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 70.6
% of Possessions with NKU PFW
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 37.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 35.4%
Player Fouled 21.2% 18.3%
Turnover 19.1% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NKU PFW
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 22.4%