NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NKU CHAT
Points 73.5 77.5
Total Points   151.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 30.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 34.9
Points From Free Throws 14.2 12.1
Shooting NKU CHAT
Field Goals Made 25.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 58.1
Field Goal % 41.5% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 24.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 63.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 14.2 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 16.1
Free Throw % 73.1% 75.3%
Ball Control NKU CHAT
Rebounds 33.5 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 9.9
Turnovers 8.5 13.2
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.5
Steals 8.2 5.1
Fouls 13.4 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NKU CHAT
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 68.8
% of Possessions with NKU CHAT
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 29.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 41.0%
Player Fouled 20.9% 18.5%
Turnover 11.7% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 11.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NKU CHAT
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 29.5%