NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNF HOU
Points 56.3 84.1
Total Points   140.4
Points From 2-Pointers 15.1 48.4
Points From 3-Pointers 28.6 19.8
Points From Free Throws 12.5 15.9
Shooting UNF HOU
Field Goals Made 17.1 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 50.2 64.0
Field Goal % 34.1% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 7.6 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 19.9 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 38.1% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 30.3 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 12.5 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 22.4
Free Throw % 77.2% 71.1%
Ball Control UNF HOU
Rebounds 27.7 43.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 16.0
Turnovers 14.7 5.9
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.8
Steals 3.1 9.5
Fouls 14.1 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Florida

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNF HOU
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 59.8 77.9
% of Possessions with UNF HOU
2 Point Attempt 26.0% 54.0%
3 Point Attempt 39.7% 21.6%
Player Fouled 20.2% 20.9%
Turnover 21.6% 8.6%
Opponent Steal 14.0% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNF HOU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 43.2%