NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNF NORAL
Points 78.8 75.0
Total Points   153.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 32.0 17.6
Points From Free Throws 16.5 16.7
Shooting UNF NORAL
Field Goals Made 25.8 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 60.2
Field Goal % 45.5% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 28.7 43.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 28.1 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 16.5 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 21.7
Free Throw % 77.2% 77.2%
Ball Control UNF NORAL
Rebounds 33.8 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 9.7
Turnovers 8.8 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.6
Steals 3.9 4.9
Fouls 15.5 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Florida

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNF NORAL
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 72.8
% of Possessions with UNF NORAL
2 Point Attempt 36.1% 52.8%
3 Point Attempt 35.5% 20.2%
Player Fouled 21.4% 21.8%
Turnover 12.3% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNF NORAL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 26.6%