NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNF FSU
Points 71.2 82.1
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 23.7 49.4
Points From 3-Pointers 33.2 14.1
Points From Free Throws 14.3 18.6
Shooting UNF FSU
Field Goals Made 22.9 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 59.2
Field Goal % 41.3% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 11.9 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 25.0 44.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 30.5 14.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 14.3 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 26.4
Free Throw % 77.2% 70.5%
Ball Control UNF FSU
Rebounds 31.4 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 11.0
Turnovers 14.1 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.8
Steals 4.0 9.2
Fouls 17.2 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Florida

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNF FSU
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 75.3
% of Possessions with UNF FSU
2 Point Attempt 30.3% 52.7%
3 Point Attempt 37.0% 16.9%
Player Fouled 20.2% 23.6%
Turnover 19.4% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 12.6% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNF FSU
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 32.1%