NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNF NCST
Points 66.8 82.7
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 23.6 48.5
Points From 3-Pointers 32.2 16.8
Points From Free Throws 11.1 17.4
Shooting UNF NCST
Field Goals Made 22.5 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 60.7
Field Goal % 39.4% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 11.8 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 25.5 45.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 31.6 15.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 11.1 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 24.0
Free Throw % 77.2% 72.6%
Ball Control UNF NCST
Rebounds 30.4 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 11.1
Turnovers 11.9 6.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.3
Steals 3.4 7.5
Fouls 15.1 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Florida

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNF NCST
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 75.0
% of Possessions with UNF NCST
2 Point Attempt 32.4% 54.6%
3 Point Attempt 40.0% 18.7%
Player Fouled 17.2% 21.3%
Turnover 16.8% 9.5%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNF NCST
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.1% 32.0%