NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RICE USM
Points 71.3 70.6
Total Points   141.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 23.8
Points From Free Throws 13.2 12.1
Shooting RICE USM
Field Goals Made 25.1 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 59.5
Field Goal % 42.6% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 13.2 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 17.1
Free Throw % 69.2% 70.5%
Ball Control RICE USM
Rebounds 37.1 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.8
Turnovers 10.3 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.0
Steals 6.2 6.7
Fouls 12.8 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Rice

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RICE USM
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 70.1
% of Possessions with RICE USM
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 25.4%
Player Fouled 20.8% 18.2%
Turnover 14.7% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken RICE USM
Shot Blocked 8.5% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 26.5%