NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAU USA
Points 86.6 71.4
Total Points   158.1
Points From 2-Pointers 47.4 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 23.6
Points From Free Throws 17.8 10.6
Shooting FAU USA
Field Goals Made 30.9 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 61.9
Field Goal % 51.8% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 23.7 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 64.2% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 17.8 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 14.2
Free Throw % 72.6% 74.7%
Ball Control FAU USA
Rebounds 41.1 28.6
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 7.0
Turnovers 9.8 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 1.7
Steals 6.8 5.0
Fouls 12.7 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: S Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAU USA
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 70.1
% of Possessions with FAU USA
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 26.4%
Player Fouled 22.3% 17.2%
Turnover 13.3% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAU USA
Shot Blocked 2.9% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.8% 18.8%