NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RICE ARK
Points 70.4 80.8
Total Points   151.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 22.2
Points From Free Throws 15.7 17.0
Shooting RICE ARK
Field Goals Made 24.0 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 59.2
Field Goal % 40.5% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 15.7 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 22.2
Free Throw % 69.2% 76.5%
Ball Control RICE ARK
Rebounds 34.9 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.6
Turnovers 10.7 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 6.1
Steals 4.7 6.6
Fouls 16.4 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Rice

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RICE ARK
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 72.6
% of Possessions with RICE ARK
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 23.9%
Player Fouled 22.2% 22.3%
Turnover 14.6% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken RICE ARK
Shot Blocked 10.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 25.2%