NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FUR CIT
Points 79.7 73.4
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 31.5 16.9
Points From Free Throws 10.6 12.4
Shooting FUR CIT
Field Goals Made 29.4 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 56.5
Field Goal % 48.4% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 30.2 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 62.4% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 10.5 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 30.5 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 10.6 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 17.4
Free Throw % 72.6% 71.4%
Ball Control FUR CIT
Rebounds 32.7 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 7.3
Turnovers 9.5 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.7
Steals 6.6 5.0
Fouls 14.6 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FUR CIT
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 66.8
% of Possessions with FUR CIT
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 38.0% 22.0%
Player Fouled 17.7% 20.7%
Turnover 13.5% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken FUR CIT
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 23.2%