NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FUR UNCG
Points 74.9 77.4
Total Points   152.3
Points From 2-Pointers 26.9 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 32.9 29.5
Points From Free Throws 15.1 10.9
Shooting FUR UNCG
Field Goals Made 24.4 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 60.1
Field Goal % 42.7% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.5 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 25.5 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 31.8 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 15.1 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 14.9
Free Throw % 72.6% 72.8%
Ball Control FUR UNCG
Rebounds 34.6 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.3
Turnovers 10.2 10.0
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.0
Steals 5.7 6.5
Fouls 14.0 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Furman

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FUR UNCG
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 69.6
% of Possessions with FUR UNCG
2 Point Attempt 31.2% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 39.0% 31.3%
Player Fouled 21.3% 19.9%
Turnover 14.5% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken FUR UNCG
Shot Blocked 5.1% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 27.5%