NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNI VALP
Points 75.2 65.3
Total Points   140.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 15.2 9.4
Shooting UNI VALP
Field Goals Made 26.7 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 58.3
Field Goal % 48.3% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 15.2 9.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 13.4
Free Throw % 70.8% 70.2%
Ball Control UNI VALP
Rebounds 37.0 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 7.5
Turnovers 9.4 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.1
Steals 6.0 5.1
Fouls 13.5 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Valparaiso

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNI VALP
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 66.7
% of Possessions with UNI VALP
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 29.9%
Player Fouled 22.9% 19.4%
Turnover 13.5% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNI VALP
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 20.5%