NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSU MER
Points 75.8 75.3
Total Points   151.1
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 18.9
Points From Free Throws 15.4 13.3
Shooting GSU MER
Field Goals Made 27.0 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 62.2
Field Goal % 44.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 42.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 15.4 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 19.7
Free Throw % 75.0% 67.9%
Ball Control GSU MER
Rebounds 36.0 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.8
Turnovers 8.3 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.6
Steals 4.6 4.8
Fouls 13.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSU MER
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 74.4
% of Possessions with GSU MER
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 51.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 23.1%
Player Fouled 22.0% 19.3%
Turnover 11.7% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSU MER
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 31.1%