NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSU DUKE
Points 68.0 88.2
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 43.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 25.3
Points From Free Throws 10.2 19.3
Shooting GSU DUKE
Field Goals Made 25.8 30.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 59.9
Field Goal % 41.5% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 41.7 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 60.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 10.2 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 27.0
Free Throw % 75.0% 71.5%
Ball Control GSU DUKE
Rebounds 29.9 41.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 12.4
Turnovers 9.1 7.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.3
Steals 3.8 5.6
Fouls 16.0 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Georgia St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSU DUKE
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 75.9
% of Possessions with GSU DUKE
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 28.0%
Player Fouled 17.8% 22.6%
Turnover 12.9% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSU DUKE
Shot Blocked 7.3% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 36.5%