NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT DUKE
Points 71.2 72.3
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 23.1
Points From Free Throws 11.4 13.7
Shooting PITT DUKE
Field Goals Made 25.9 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 56.4
Field Goal % 43.5% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 34.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 11.4 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 19.2
Free Throw % 73.0% 71.6%
Ball Control PITT DUKE
Rebounds 34.2 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.8
Turnovers 7.6 8.6
Blocked Shots 5.7 3.3
Steals 4.8 4.5
Fouls 13.3 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT DUKE
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 67.0
% of Possessions with PITT DUKE
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 28.7%
Player Fouled 20.7% 19.9%
Turnover 11.3% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT DUKE
Shot Blocked 6.0% 9.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 26.3%