NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSU BUFF
Points 81.7 74.6
Total Points   156.3
Points From 2-Pointers 45.6 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 26.5
Points From Free Throws 13.0 12.4
Shooting GSU BUFF
Field Goals Made 30.5 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 63.4
Field Goal % 49.2% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.4 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 28.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 13.0 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 17.5
Free Throw % 67.7% 71.0%
Ball Control GSU BUFF
Rebounds 41.1 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 9.6
Turnovers 11.1 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.2
Steals 5.7 6.0
Fouls 14.3 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSU BUFF
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 74.0
% of Possessions with GSU BUFF
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 33.3%
Player Fouled 19.2% 19.4%
Turnover 15.0% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSU BUFF
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 24.4%