NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT LOU
Points 82.3 65.4
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 31.8 14.5
Points From Free Throws 15.1 15.3
Shooting PITT LOU
Field Goals Made 28.3 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 53.5
Field Goal % 48.3% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.6 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 26.9 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 27.6%
Free Throws Made 15.1 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 20.7
Free Throw % 73.0% 74.2%
Ball Control PITT LOU
Rebounds 35.5 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 7.2
Turnovers 7.8 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.9 2.3
Steals 7.1 3.8
Fouls 16.0 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT LOU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 65.4
% of Possessions with PITT LOU
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 33.7% 22.2%
Player Fouled 22.2% 22.9%
Turnover 11.2% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT LOU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 21.5%