NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HP WIN
Points 81.1 75.2
Total Points   156.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 17.4
Points From Free Throws 21.2 22.3
Shooting HP WIN
Field Goals Made 25.8 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 52.2
Field Goal % 44.4% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 21.2 22.3
Free Throws Attempted 27.2 32.1
Free Throw % 77.9% 69.3%
Ball Control HP WIN
Rebounds 39.2 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 8.8
Turnovers 10.5 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.2
Steals 4.9 4.1
Fouls 21.6 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Winthrop

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HP WIN
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.6 71.1
% of Possessions with HP WIN
2 Point Attempt 36.2% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 21.0%
Player Fouled 26.3% 29.9%
Turnover 14.5% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HP WIN
Shot Blocked 4.3% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 38.6% 25.8%