NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EIU DAY
Points 57.4 81.9
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 29.0
Points From Free Throws 7.6 16.8
Shooting EIU DAY
Field Goals Made 22.1 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 49.8
Field Goal % 36.2% 55.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 41.7 27.5
2 Point Shooting % 39.7% 65.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 43.5%
Free Throws Made 7.6 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 10.4 22.5
Free Throw % 73.7% 74.7%
Ball Control EIU DAY
Rebounds 27.7 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 19.0 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 6.4
Turnovers 8.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.2
Steals 5.7 4.6
Fouls 17.2 10.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EIU DAY
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 63.3
% of Possessions with EIU DAY
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 37.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 29.9%
Player Fouled 15.1% 25.7%
Turnover 13.1% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken EIU DAY
Shot Blocked 8.6% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 25.3%