NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNI SMC
Points 60.7 72.7
Total Points   133.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.8 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 23.3
Points From Free Throws 15.4 10.9
Shooting UNI SMC
Field Goals Made 20.2 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 50.0 56.5
Field Goal % 40.4% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 14.9 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 15.4 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 16.3
Free Throw % 70.8% 67.1%
Ball Control UNI SMC
Rebounds 27.1 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 4.8 10.2
Turnovers 8.8 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.9
Steals 5.2 6.0
Fouls 14.2 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNI SMC
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 62.2 66.9
% of Possessions with UNI SMC
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 28.1%
Player Fouled 25.5% 21.5%
Turnover 13.3% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNI SMC
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 14.5% 31.3%