NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PV SMC
Points 52.0 86.2
Total Points   138.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 47.5
Points From 3-Pointers 8.2 22.6
Points From Free Throws 13.5 16.1
Shooting PV SMC
Field Goals Made 17.9 31.3
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 53.6
Field Goal % 33.9% 58.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 23.8
2 Pointers Attempted 43.1 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 35.1% 68.6%
3 Pointers Made 2.7 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 9.7 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 28.2% 39.8%
Free Throws Made 13.5 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 24.0
Free Throw % 70.5% 67.1%
Ball Control PV SMC
Rebounds 19.3 45.3
Rebounds - Defensive 14.1 32.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.2 12.9
Turnovers 10.7 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.2 5.0
Steals 6.6 6.4
Fouls 16.7 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PV SMC
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 69.4
% of Possessions with PV SMC
2 Point Attempt 56.7% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 12.8% 22.9%
Player Fouled 24.4% 24.2%
Turnover 15.5% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PV SMC
Shot Blocked 9.5% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 13.9% 47.9%