NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PV CAL
Points 63.5 87.5
Total Points   151.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 12.2 25.8
Points From Free Throws 14.4 19.1
Shooting PV CAL
Field Goals Made 22.5 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 56.4
Field Goal % 37.6% 53.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 46.2 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 39.9% 62.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 13.7 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 14.4 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 26.1
Free Throw % 70.5% 73.2%
Ball Control PV CAL
Rebounds 27.1 44.0
Rebounds - Defensive 19.4 32.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 11.3
Turnovers 10.5 12.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.7
Steals 6.6 5.8
Fouls 17.5 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PV CAL
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 73.0
% of Possessions with PV CAL
2 Point Attempt 55.1% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 16.3% 25.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 23.5%
Turnover 14.0% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PV CAL
Shot Blocked 6.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.1% 36.8%