NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PV ALST
Points 67.1 71.5
Total Points   138.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 19.6
Points From Free Throws 18.0 15.5
Shooting PV ALST
Field Goals Made 22.2 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 60.7
Field Goal % 40.9% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 15.1 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 18.0 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 21.4
Free Throw % 70.5% 72.4%
Ball Control PV ALST
Rebounds 34.6 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 12.9
Turnovers 12.8 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.7 5.2
Steals 6.5 7.3
Fouls 15.4 19.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PV ALST
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 74.4
% of Possessions with PV ALST
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 24.7%
Player Fouled 25.9% 20.9%
Turnover 17.3% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PV ALST
Shot Blocked 8.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 33.0%