NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNI SIU
Points 73.1 67.7
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 22.5
Points From Free Throws 13.8 10.7
Shooting UNI SIU
Field Goals Made 25.9 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 56.1
Field Goal % 48.2% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 13.8 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 16.0
Free Throw % 67.8% 66.7%
Ball Control UNI SIU
Rebounds 31.7 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 9.2
Turnovers 8.6 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.7
Steals 5.6 5.5
Fouls 12.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Iowa

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNI SIU
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 66.2
% of Possessions with UNI SIU
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 26.1%
Player Fouled 23.0% 19.0%
Turnover 12.6% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNI SIU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 26.8%