NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNI SIU
Points 63.5 61.4
Total Points   124.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 10.8
Points From Free Throws 10.7 11.8
Shooting UNI SIU
Field Goals Made 23.4 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 54.7
Field Goal % 43.0% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 3.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.8% 22.9%
Free Throws Made 10.7 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 17.4
Free Throw % 67.7% 67.8%
Ball Control UNI SIU
Rebounds 33.1 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 7.4
Turnovers 10.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.1
Steals 5.9 7.2
Fouls 14.1 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNI SIU
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 65.2
% of Possessions with UNI SIU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 20.5%
Player Fouled 21.8% 20.6%
Turnover 15.4% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNI SIU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 17.0% 21.2%