NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT FSU
Points 78.9 69.3
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 29.4 15.3
Points From Free Throws 16.7 14.9
Shooting PITT FSU
Field Goals Made 26.2 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 55.5
Field Goal % 43.9% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.0 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 16.7 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 21.1
Free Throw % 73.0% 70.5%
Ball Control PITT FSU
Rebounds 38.9 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 7.8
Turnovers 9.7 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.9
Steals 5.2 6.0
Fouls 16.0 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT FSU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 68.0
% of Possessions with PITT FSU
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 22.5%
Player Fouled 23.6% 22.6%
Turnover 13.6% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT FSU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 34.1% 22.8%