NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU BEL
Points 71.2 69.7
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 28.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 29.0
Points From Free Throws 13.8 12.4
Shooting GMU BEL
Field Goals Made 25.2 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 55.3
Field Goal % 45.1% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 14.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 29.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.0% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 26.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 13.8 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 16.9
Free Throw % 74.1% 73.1%
Ball Control GMU BEL
Rebounds 36.6 30.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 7.1
Turnovers 11.2 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 5.6 6.8
Fouls 14.7 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Belmont

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU BEL
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 65.5
% of Possessions with GMU BEL
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 37.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 33.9%
Player Fouled 21.4% 21.4%
Turnover 16.2% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU BEL
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 20.9%