NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU STJOE
Points 69.0 70.3
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 27.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 31.2
Points From Free Throws 13.5 11.7
Shooting GMU STJOE
Field Goals Made 24.2 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 57.4
Field Goal % 43.9% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 13.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.6 27.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 29.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.5 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 16.3
Free Throw % 74.1% 71.9%
Ball Control GMU STJOE
Rebounds 35.9 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.8
Turnovers 11.1 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.2
Steals 5.4 6.7
Fouls 14.1 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU STJOE
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 67.4
% of Possessions with GMU STJOE
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 35.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 37.5%
Player Fouled 20.8% 20.9%
Turnover 16.5% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU STJOE
Shot Blocked 7.4% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 27.6%