NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU URI
Points 76.9 65.9
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 21.1
Points From Free Throws 14.9 14.0
Shooting GMU URI
Field Goals Made 27.2 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 53.1
Field Goal % 48.2% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 14.9 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 21.1
Free Throw % 74.1% 66.1%
Ball Control GMU URI
Rebounds 34.7 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.3
Turnovers 8.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.3 2.9
Steals 5.5 4.4
Fouls 16.2 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU URI
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 65.8
% of Possessions with GMU URI
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 25.9%
Player Fouled 23.8% 24.0%
Turnover 12.5% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU URI
Shot Blocked 5.6% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 27.0%