NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU VCU
Points 61.5 66.0
Total Points   127.4
Points From 2-Pointers 28.6 25.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 27.0
Points From Free Throws 15.1 13.8
Shooting GMU VCU
Field Goals Made 20.2 21.6
Field Goals Attempted 51.5 52.5
Field Goal % 39.3% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 12.6
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 27.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 15.1 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 17.8
Free Throw % 74.1% 77.2%
Ball Control GMU VCU
Rebounds 33.7 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.7
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.5
Steals 5.4 6.5
Fouls 14.6 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: VCU

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU VCU
Total Possessions 65.2
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 63.8
% of Possessions with GMU VCU
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 37.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 33.3%
Player Fouled 23.5% 22.4%
Turnover 16.6% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU VCU
Shot Blocked 8.6% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 26.4%