NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU RICH
Points 64.0 64.9
Total Points   128.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 22.9
Points From Free Throws 12.4 11.1
Shooting GMU RICH
Field Goals Made 22.4 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 53.7
Field Goal % 41.5% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 12.4 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 15.5
Free Throw % 74.1% 71.6%
Ball Control GMU RICH
Rebounds 37.0 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 5.2
Turnovers 10.6 8.2
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.0
Steals 4.0 5.9
Fouls 14.3 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU RICH
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 62.8
% of Possessions with GMU RICH
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 28.9%
Player Fouled 20.3% 21.7%
Turnover 16.1% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU RICH
Shot Blocked 5.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 15.7%