NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU MD
Points 61.4 64.3
Total Points   125.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 29.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 19.2
Points From Free Throws 14.5 16.0
Shooting GMU MD
Field Goals Made 20.9 20.9
Field Goals Attempted 50.9 53.8
Field Goal % 41.0% 38.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 29.6%
Free Throws Made 14.5 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 21.9
Free Throw % 74.1% 73.1%
Ball Control GMU MD
Rebounds 33.7 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 11.2
Turnovers 12.1 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.9
Steals 4.6 6.0
Fouls 16.7 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU MD
Total Possessions 65.9
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 67.4
% of Possessions with GMU MD
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 27.7%
Player Fouled 24.3% 25.4%
Turnover 18.3% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU MD
Shot Blocked 9.2% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 31.1%