NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU DAV
Points 66.6 64.0
Total Points   130.6
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 29.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.4 12.9
Shooting GMU DAV
Field Goals Made 22.3 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.7 54.5
Field Goal % 43.2% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 15.4 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 17.6
Free Throw % 74.1% 73.6%
Ball Control GMU DAV
Rebounds 35.6 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.8
Turnovers 11.0 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.1
Steals 5.2 6.2
Fouls 15.1 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU DAV
Total Possessions 66.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 65.3
% of Possessions with GMU DAV
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 31.4%
Player Fouled 23.6% 22.9%
Turnover 16.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU DAV
Shot Blocked 7.7% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 25.0%