NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU MAN
Points 68.9 60.2
Total Points   129.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 30.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.9 17.9
Points From Free Throws 14.7 11.8
Shooting SPU MAN
Field Goals Made 23.9 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 53.9
Field Goal % 42.1% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 14.7 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 16.1
Free Throw % 71.2% 73.2%
Ball Control SPU MAN
Rebounds 38.8 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 7.7
Turnovers 10.7 13.0
Blocked Shots 5.4 3.4
Steals 7.2 6.1
Fouls 14.6 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: St Peters

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU MAN
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 63.2
% of Possessions with SPU MAN
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 25.4%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.3%
Turnover 15.6% 19.0%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU MAN
Shot Blocked 6.5% 9.7%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 22.4%