NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU MSM
Points 64.2 64.3
Total Points   128.5
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 16.5
Points From Free Throws 15.1 13.0
Shooting SPU MSM
Field Goals Made 21.5 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 52.4
Field Goal % 38.2% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 39.8% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 15.1 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 18.0
Free Throw % 71.2% 71.9%
Ball Control SPU MSM
Rebounds 34.4 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.0
Turnovers 10.7 14.2
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.2
Steals 8.0 5.4
Fouls 15.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Peters

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU MSM
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 63.6
% of Possessions with SPU MSM
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 21.2%
Player Fouled 21.8% 22.3%
Turnover 15.6% 20.6%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 11.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU MSM
Shot Blocked 8.1% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 28.2%