NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU VCU
Points 55.2 67.4
Total Points   122.7
Points From 2-Pointers 24.6 28.3
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 20.5
Points From Free Throws 15.3 18.7
Shooting SPU VCU
Field Goals Made 17.4 21.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 47.9
Field Goal % 32.7% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 12.3 14.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 28.4
2 Point Shooting % 34.2% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 15.3 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 24.2
Free Throw % 71.2% 77.2%
Ball Control SPU VCU
Rebounds 32.9 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 8.3
Turnovers 11.0 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.7
Steals 6.1 5.9
Fouls 17.8 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: St Peters

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU VCU
Total Possessions 66.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 62.8
% of Possessions with SPU VCU
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 37.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 25.8%
Player Fouled 23.4% 27.0%
Turnover 16.6% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU VCU
Shot Blocked 10.0% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 27.7%