NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU SJU
Points 58.3 76.6
Total Points   134.9
Points From 2-Pointers 26.2 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 16.6
Points From Free Throws 16.2 19.5
Shooting SPU SJU
Field Goals Made 18.4 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 55.1
Field Goal % 33.4% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 13.1 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 33.1% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 15.6 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 16.2 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 26.3
Free Throw % 71.2% 74.2%
Ball Control SPU SJU
Rebounds 31.9 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 19.9 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 13.2
Turnovers 12.1 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.2 7.1
Steals 5.7 5.7
Fouls 17.6 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU SJU
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 71.7
% of Possessions with SPU SJU
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 20.4%
Player Fouled 24.6% 25.7%
Turnover 17.6% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU SJU
Shot Blocked 13.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.1% 39.9%