NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIGB UNM
Points 63.8 83.4
Total Points   147.2
Points From 2-Pointers 28.4 50.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 15.9
Points From Free Throws 11.7 16.6
Shooting WIGB UNM
Field Goals Made 22.1 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 61.0
Field Goal % 38.8% 50.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 25.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.6 43.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 11.7 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 23.0
Free Throw % 71.5% 72.3%
Ball Control WIGB UNM
Rebounds 30.3 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.3
Turnovers 12.5 6.8
Blocked Shots 2.2 7.4
Steals 3.5 7.4
Fouls 16.3 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIGB UNM
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 75.0
% of Possessions with WIGB UNM
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 20.8%
Player Fouled 19.8% 23.1%
Turnover 17.8% 9.6%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 5.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIGB UNM
Shot Blocked 12.3% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 33.3%