NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PORT LMU
Points 70.5 78.4
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 33.7
Points From Free Throws 10.9 8.6
Shooting PORT LMU
Field Goals Made 25.7 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 62.1
Field Goal % 44.1% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 28.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 10.9 8.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 11.6
Free Throw % 70.9% 73.7%
Ball Control PORT LMU
Rebounds 32.4 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 9.4
Turnovers 7.2 7.0
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.8
Steals 3.1 3.1
Fouls 11.4 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PORT LMU
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 69.3
% of Possessions with PORT LMU
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 37.0%
Player Fouled 21.7% 17.1%
Turnover 10.8% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 4.6% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PORT LMU
Shot Blocked 4.5% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 27.4%