NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PORT ASU
Points 66.6 77.5
Total Points   144.1
Points From 2-Pointers 26.3 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 28.4 29.0
Points From Free Throws 11.9 10.0
Shooting PORT ASU
Field Goals Made 22.6 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 62.7
Field Goal % 40.3% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 28.0 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 28.2 28.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 11.9 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 15.3
Free Throw % 70.9% 65.3%
Ball Control PORT ASU
Rebounds 36.9 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 7.6
Turnovers 12.8 7.0
Blocked Shots 1.3 4.0
Steals 3.2 7.6
Fouls 13.4 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PORT ASU
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 72.1
% of Possessions with PORT ASU
2 Point Attempt 34.7% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 35.0% 35.2%
Player Fouled 21.2% 18.8%
Turnover 17.9% 9.8%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 4.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PORT ASU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 20.5%