NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN NDSU
Points 81.7 81.4
Total Points   163.0
Points From 2-Pointers 44.1 43.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 23.3
Points From Free Throws 13.4 14.4
Shooting DEN NDSU
Field Goals Made 30.1 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 58.1
Field Goal % 50.0% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 57.0% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 40.6%
Free Throws Made 13.4 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 19.5
Free Throw % 70.7% 74.1%
Ball Control DEN NDSU
Rebounds 31.2 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 7.3
Turnovers 7.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.5 1.6
Steals 5.4 3.0
Fouls 15.7 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN NDSU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 69.2
% of Possessions with DEN NDSU
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 23.6%
Player Fouled 20.0% 21.8%
Turnover 10.7% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 4.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.8% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 23.6%