NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN UCLA
Points 59.9 90.2
Total Points   150.0
Points From 2-Pointers 29.9 47.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 24.3
Points From Free Throws 10.6 18.5
Shooting DEN UCLA
Field Goals Made 21.4 31.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 54.8
Field Goal % 39.2% 58.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 63.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 46.2%
Free Throws Made 10.6 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 26.2
Free Throw % 69.8% 70.8%
Ball Control DEN UCLA
Rebounds 24.2 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 18.7 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 9.1
Turnovers 13.8 9.5
Blocked Shots 1.5 4.2
Steals 4.2 5.5
Fouls 20.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN UCLA
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 71.1
% of Possessions with DEN UCLA
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 21.6%
Player Fouled 22.2% 27.9%
Turnover 19.3% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN UCLA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 15.7% 32.7%