NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN UCLA
Points 59.6 77.0
Total Points   136.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 16.2 19.2
Points From Free Throws 13.1 20.5
Shooting DEN UCLA
Field Goals Made 20.6 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 50.9 52.8
Field Goal % 40.4% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.7 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 13.1 20.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 28.4
Free Throw % 68.7% 72.1%
Ball Control DEN UCLA
Rebounds 27.6 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 11.1
Turnovers 14.3 10.7
Blocked Shots 1.5 3.6
Steals 4.5 7.2
Fouls 20.4 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: UCLA

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN UCLA
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 62.3 70.9
% of Possessions with DEN UCLA
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 23.5%
Player Fouled 24.8% 28.9%
Turnover 20.3% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN UCLA
Shot Blocked 6.9% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 18.4% 34.1%