NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN UCLA
Points 65.9 79.1
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 25.0 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 17.3
Points From Free Throws 14.5 17.7
Shooting DEN UCLA
Field Goals Made 21.3 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 57.0
Field Goal % 38.2% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 12.5 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 28.8 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.3% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 26.9 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 14.5 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 23.9
Free Throw % 70.7% 74.3%
Ball Control DEN UCLA
Rebounds 30.7 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 10.5
Turnovers 10.2 8.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.8
Steals 4.3 4.7
Fouls 17.6 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN UCLA
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 71.7
% of Possessions with DEN UCLA
2 Point Attempt 36.2% 51.4%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 19.1%
Player Fouled 24.7% 25.4%
Turnover 14.7% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN UCLA
Shot Blocked 8.4% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 32.1%